Burundi after Nkurunziza

The East African country of Burundi is a country with a long history of conflict since gaining its independence from Belgium in 1962 but it has also been a country of resilience in the face of untold human suffering with its last civil war which lasted for almost 12 years from 1993 to 2005 as a result of the assassination of its democratic elected President Melchior Ndadaye in October 1993 and led to widespread civilian casualties with up to 300000 killed. The decade long civil war ended as warring parties saw the need for a peaceful settlement in 2005. Former rebel leader Pierre Nkurunziza won the 2005 elections and finally brought what the citizens of Burundi, the African continent as a whole and the international community were all longing for, a ‘lasting peace’ as the country took positive steps towards peacebuilding initiatives to help the country heal from its wounds of the past and ‘look to a brighter future’ where conflict would hopefully be absent. However this was never going to be a ‘smooth road’ and bear in mind that this country is located in the great lakes region which has long being a hotspot of militia activity as the country also borders the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and often has felt the effects of conflicts there as is evidenced by the frequent spill overs.

In the year 2015 the already fragile peace the country was in became severely affected by anti-government protests as the Nkurunziza regime went ahead with a vote for the President to govern for a third term which caused a lot of political upheaval to the point that the country precipitated towards a civil war, particularly when President Nkurunziza won the disputed elections which many election observers said was neither free nor fair. It is estimated that over 1000 people were killed and hundreds of thousands fled the country to neighbouring countries. The Nkurunziza regime has held on but not without severe criticism, including from fellow African states. Negotiations have been on-going to end the violent political stalemate that has heavily eroded what little was left of the country’s democratic political space and Nkurunziza being aware of this decided not to go for a fourth term to the surprise of many but did hand pick his successor which without surprise won the 2020 election which was not only disputed yet again but was held in a precarious time as the coronavirus pandemic has affected the whole world, including Burundi which received a lot of criticism for holding and for the government not taking the pandemic seriously enough. The new president was scheduled to be sworn in August 2020 but following President Nkurunziza’s untimely death from a ‘heart attack’ according to the Burundi government this appears to have left some sort of ‘power vacuum’ as Nkurunziza was without a doubt the ‘kingmaker’ and would have still influenced the country’s political sphere for a long time to come. This leaves the country in a period of uncertainty and a need for all its political players to respect the rule of law, support a democratic alternative rather than a military one to move forward during this time as the country finds itself in a catch 22 situation yet again in its history where it is in need of national healing, a peaceful solution to its political situation and for democracy to prevail in the country.

I will discuss three scenarios the country could take, and it is my hope that the country takes the right path to peace and allow for a truly democratic narrative to be at the forefront of this journey.

Scenario one: Another Civil War could erupt

The Burundi military has had a significant influence over the affairs of the country and are deeply embedded in the ruling National Council for the Defence of Democracy – Forces for the Defence of Democracy (CNDD-FDD) party which in itself is a product of such a system as it was previously a rebel movement and thus consists of a number of military officials many of whom ‘most likely’ harbour presidential ambitions if the country’s history is anything to go by. Evariste Ndayishimiye was handpicked by Nkurunziza as the ruling party’s candidate for the 2020 election as a compromise candidate due to his military background but has also been viewed by some political analysts as moderate and not engaging in identity politics. Although he was due to be sworn in as President in August, following the outgoing Presidents death a power vacuum was created leading to the country’s Constitutional Court to name president-elect Evariste Ndayishimiye as the country’s president with immediate effect and is due to be sworn in on June 18. This decision by the Constitutional Court appears to be in violation of the country’s constitution which stated that in the event of a president’s death the speaker of parliament should take over, as stated in Article 121 of the Burundi constitution (2018).

The speaker of parliament or the National Assembly is none other than Pascal Nyabenda who was actually Nkurunziza’s first choice. As a result of the Constitutional Court ruling this 'could' trigger a power struggle between the two and this could worsen the already precarious situation in the country which has experienced political instability of civil war proportions since 2015. This was accompanied by bloodshed and an attempted coup, and unless tensions are not diminished by more respected organisations such as the East African Community (EAC), the African Union (AU), the United Nations (UN) and other international bodies as soon as possible given the country’s unfortunate track record of plunging into a crises, the country risks being exposed to another genocide. Hence, the need for a peaceful transition to power is extremely important and it is my hope that these two parties and any other ‘unknown’ parties who may already be planning to react or respond to protect their interests will set aside any of their differences amicably for the benefit of the country.

Scenario 2: A Democratic dispensation prevails

This scenario may look rather unlikely given Burundi’s deeply entrenched authoritarian system which epistemically can trace its origins to colonialism which created the animosity that prevailed particularly in the past between the ethnic Hutu’s and Tutsi’s and still lingers today. However, Evariste Ndayishimiye could change all that and use his moderate political views to unite the country beyond tribal designations so as to place the right people in government positions that are qualified to do so. It is said that Ndayishimiye abhors corruption, a ‘disease’ that has entrenched the country’s levels of poverty to appalling levels, leading the country to be one of the worlds poorest nations as result, and this view by the newly elected president is indeed welcomed and this could give a glimmer of hope that his disdain for corruption could hopefully be also translated into respect for the rule of law and thus a support for a democrat dispensation where by the rule of law will be respected, something that has largely been absent in the country as a number of human rights violations and extrajudicial killings have occurred under the administration of his predecessor.

The late President still wanted to have significant influence over the country’s political future and was even given a new political role known as the ‘supreme guide to patriotism’ as a way of influencing the running of state affairs. This arrangement would have weakened Ndayishimiye’s presidency but now that Nkurunziza is no longer around this effectively gives him much needed political clout to carry any of his plans through and seek to unite the country and repair its dented international image as the country is in great need of foreign direct investment. However, the election he won has largely been disputed by the opposition and the international community and the way it was held was far from democratic as rights groups say the vote took place under continuing repression of the opposition, independent media and civil society. According to Human Rights Watch “The elections took place in a highly repressive environment with no independent international observers”. Hence, Ndayishimiye has his work cut out for him and without a doubt he has to engage with the opposition as failure to do so will risk the country plunging into an ‘abyss’ which could engulf the whole region, hence the need for the international community to monitor this transition closely and understand the complex political situation in the country to enable them to handle the situation effectively and appropriately and not out of ignorance. Preferably as insider–partial mediators as they originate from the region where the conflict is occurring and have intimate knowledge of and connections to the disputants as defined by Ole Elgström, Jacob Bercovitch and Carl Skau in their journal article titled: Regional Organisations and International Mediation: The Effectiveness of Insider Mediators (2003), which would be a satisfactory start to any peace initiative that I encourage should occur to put Burundi on the right trajectory.

Scenario 3: ‘Rwanda as a development model’

This scenario is rather more of an outlier of scenario 2 but can nevertheless be also deemed as another scenario or sequence of events that could occur. I state this scenario as the best-case scenario for the country given its similarities to neighbouring Rwanda as the two countries share same cultures and histories. At one point in their histories both countries were part of a single territory called Ruanda-Urundi during colonialism before separating after their independence in 1962. Rwanda went through a brutal genocide in 1994 but has since been transformed into ‘a poster child’ for development in Africa and has experienced substantial economic growth as it has undergone rapid industrialisation due to the successful policies of the Kagame administration since 2000 which was influenced by Singapore’s rise and according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), poverty in Rwanda plunged from 56.7% in 2005 to 39.1% by 2014. According to the World Food Programme 65% of the Burundian population lives in poverty in 2018 and is ranked 185^th out of 189 countries in the 2019 Human Development Index.

The country has attempted to make economic gains since the end of the civil war but due to socio-economic issues, corruption and other economic malpractices this has not been forthcoming. The country has also been in turmoil since 2015 when Nkurunziza was allowed to rule for a third term leading to civil unrest that has significantly dented the already fragile economy which has witnessed international donors cutting financial support which accounted for 42% of the country’s budget due to the human rights violations caused by the Nkurunziza regime. This means the country desperately needs to improve its human rights image under the new administration to remove these sanctions to attract international investors and have policies in place to be a safe place for investments like neighbouring Rwanda which has pulled out the red-carpet to welcome investors and has even gone as far as creating a state agency to accelerate investment called the Rwanda Development Board. The new administration in Burundi will do well by replicating the Rwandan government on such initiatives to bring back investors through a creation of a ‘Burundi Development Board’.

It is very interesting to note that some observers see links between Rwanda’s development model and Rwandan President Paul Kagame as “the story of Rwanda’s economic emergence remains closely intertwined with the personal narrative of President Paul Kagame” according to African Business. Kagame’s rule has also brought stability which is what investors are looking for as opposed to Burundi, despite some of the Rwandan governments’ own accusations of human rights violations. This evidently shows how Kagame’s own ‘hands-on approach’ on the economic front has been extremely beneficial to the development of Rwanda and there are similarities between Paul Kagame and Burundi’s in-coming President Evariste Ndayishimiye as both have their origins in the military and both appear to be against identity politics and perhaps Ndayishimiye could be Burundi’s 'Kagame' in terms of improving the country’s dire economic situation, but not neglecting the democratic reforms as well for the country to truly reach ‘a turning point’ for the better.