How July 2024 will shape US politics for decades

July 2024 will go down in US history as a period of significant change. The US has not seen such fast paced change since at least 1968 and we are still half way through the year. At the beginning of July President Joe Biden was the democratic nominee for President for the November 5 elections and was well into his campaign for a second term as US president. Donald Trump much like Biden secured enough delegates to be the Republican nominee for President with the Republican National Convention (RNC) simply going to confirm this much like the Democratic National Convention (DNC) was to do for Biden as well. As the unpresidented debate of June 27 drew near so to were the concerns for Biden's capacity to perform against Trump after a series of gaffes. However the debate performance although not surprising given Bidens fitness prior to the debate was a huge shock not just domestically but internationally as the President's age was clearly on display and not being coherent enough which gave fodder to Trump who was surprisingly restrained and left Biden to his own devices. After the disaster of a debate that was to have a ripple effect, the democratic party's deck of cards finally started to crumble in July as one by one top officials called for Biden to stand down as the democratic nominee. Biden for weeks pushed back and continued his campaign for a second term and also was forced to go on a series of interviews to state his case which at this stage was to no avail as his physical appearance showed a man who was clearly aging.

It was at this time that Washington was to host the NATO summit which began on July 9 which saw many world leaders whose countries are members of NATO were well in attendance for one of the world's most powerful security alliances in which the US is the key pillar, funder and security guarantee of it and Biden would be presiding over this important meeting. Then came the gaffe where he mistakenly said "ladies and gentlemen President Putin" instead of President Zelensky when welcoming the Ukrainian President which at the very least he self corrected.

As all these events were taking place in the US with the political environment being clearly toxic and divisive former President Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt on July 13 with the bullet from the assassin missing his head by a few centimeters and cut his ear to the shock of his supporters, Americans and the world at large which reminisced the dark, turbulent and violent times of the 1960s where several high profile Americans who have shaped the country were assassinated. Trump did not allow this event to halt the RNC and nominated his long awaited running mate 39 year old Ohio Senator JD Vance two days later on July 15 which rejuvenated his campaign which also saw former Republican rivals back him and clearly presented him as the 'ultimate' front runner as Biden continued to slide in the polls as the democratic party was plunged into chaos between the President's supporters and those publicly calling for him to step aside with more and more even more prominent voices in the party stating that he should reconsider his position including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Former President Barack Obama.

On Sunday July 21 in the afternoon Biden finally made an announcement in writing that was widely shared on all major news networks and online that he would stand down as the democratic nominee for President and will complete his first term. This statement by Biden was inevitable in light of his health and fitness and vivid frailty which is expected a man of his age. Not long after he endorsed his Vice President Kamala Harris as his preferred successor. Following that announcement many democrats commended Biden as a patriot and including Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer, while Vice President Harris called Biden's legacy 'unmatched'. Biden finally made a public announcement from the White House to address the nation of his intention to not run for reelection on July 24 as a matter of 'defending democracy', 'unite the nation' and to 'pass the torch'. Following Biden's announcement the democratic party has somewhat stabilized and many senior democratic leaders have followed suit and coalesced around Harris but some have argued for an open contest and it is interesting that Obama did not endorse her until July 26 and many democrats see her as the 'best person' to beat Trump in the November election. The Trump camp appears unmoved by Harris and this is because Harris has had low poll numbers in the past, even lower than Biden and has not been seen as an effective Vice President by her critics, mainly Republicans, but also including some members of her own party which gives her an extra effort to win them over and is well aware of this as she mentioned she wants to earn her support. Some latest polls have put her closer to Trump.
July is still far from over and so much could transpire before the end of the month as the last few weeks have clearly shown us. 

South Africa's GNU conundrum

In what was supposed to take a matter of a few weeks is fast approaching to be a month, if not more, as disagreements between the two main political parties, the African National Congress (ANC) and Democratic Alliance (DA), suggests a stalemate even before actual governance can take place clearly showing the drawback of this GNU which is seen by many as the best case option for South Africa. The very fabric and foundation of post-aparthied South Africa is rooted in multi-party conglomeration as was the case 30 years ago with an actual GNU taking place between a variety of different political parties with clear diverse historical, economical and social ideologies. South Africa's democratic system appears to be asking for the same. However in as much as the new political arrangement has been termed a GNU, in reality it is a coalition government as clearly the consensus is between two political parties. All other parties, minor in comparison to the ANC and DA, are merely spectators and gap fillers. One of the main key points of contention is the DA demanding more positions than the ANC is willing to give. These include the positions of Deputy President, Minister in the Office of the Presidency and Deputy Finance Minister. This has made the DA be viewed as over bearing and demanding by its opponents or frenemies in the GNU (I call them frenemies because they are still willing to work with the DA as there are some areas of common interest) and they raise very legitimate points as the DA received 22% of the vote against the ANC's 40%. There is also a concern from the ANC that there could be a pushback of the “levers of economic redress”. An important point to note is that not all ANC members are in support of it and includes senior ANC members such as Lindiwe Sisulu, who is part of the ANC's National Executive Committee, to name a few.

The DA's position also garners support as the DA has been commended in stabilising areas they have governed such as Tshwane/Pretoria as argued by Tshwane mayor Cilliers Brink and running the Western Cape effectively and they want to bring this form of good governance to the GNU, hence advocating for those said positions.
What is fascinating is how the coalition provincial government in the KwaZulu-Natal province is effectively in shape (not without its own internal issues) despite at one point the province being ear-marked to be controlled by Former President Jacob Zuma's MK party with its policies likely to chase investment according to some analysts and a likelihood of Zuma controlling the province unilaterally which surprisingly did not happen and perhaps this government of provincial unity can be replicated in the GNU as a stepping stone as the GNU reaches its '11th hour' before its hopeful but likely contentious formation as disagreements have emerged which is expectant in such arrangements where different political parties with their own views attempt to merge together for the sake of national unity. Perhaps the GNU which would be the second time the country would be having such an arrangement could look back to its first one in 1994 as a guide to the next step forward.

2024: A year of Elections and how it will change the global geo-political landscape!

Democracy has been able to survive and recreate itself well into the 21st century due to the concept of elections. Elections have kept the democratic norms in function as it is the very fuel that keeps this form of government to remain in practice. However the hosting of elections have become complicated over time as each country tailor makes it to their political environment. This leads to either a positive or negative outcome. Indeed a blanket view of democracy simply does not add up given that each country has a set of norms and values that are different from each other. The concept is not perfect but is a lesser flawed one than other concepts as history has taught us. Case in point the Soviet Union and North Korea. This also means elections are just as complex as one has to consider the regional, cultural and historical context of a nation when elections are to be held. A country's size and population also means elections are conducted differently as a country that is smaller is likely to have its votes counted faster than a huge one. Although this is contested as witnessed in the United States (US) where the results of the winner are announced in less than a day despite the US being over 9000000 km² in size, while in places such as India it takes much longer despite being smaller in size than the US but with a much larger population and other factors in other countries such as poor road infrastructure to transport ballet papers or not using a modern form of biometric systems to count votes more effectively and efficiently. Hence, elections is in itself a complex set of rules and regulations that simply cannot be replicated in its entirety from one country to another.

However there are basic standards that all countries which have regular elections need to follow:

1. Allow all its citizens who have reached adulthood to have the universal right to cast their votes.
2. That the final results be respected and not tampered with.
3. That there are enough polling stations throughout a country so that people do not have to travel long distances.
4. Those who vote should be allowed to vote for whoever thay want without intimidation.
5. That all political parties should be able to have observers to witness the counting of ballots.
6. All those in the voting qeue should be allowed to cast their vote as long as they are registered voters.
7. Let us not forget about the pre-election period where all political parties should be allowed to campaign freely in line with the rules and regulations of the country's constitution.
8. That the elections be as transparent as possible.
9. That the polling stations open on time unless there is a valid reason otherwise in this case good communication should be passed to those already waiting to cast their vote with extentions being allowed.
10. Lastly, that all political players agree in unison despite their political differences the results unless clear irregularities have taken place, in which case should be contested in the right legal channels.

To date many countries around the world are having or have had elections already and these include South Africa, Namibia, Mozambique, UK, France, The US, India and many others to name but a view. This concept of elections has been around for a millenia since the time of ancient Greece. However it has fully gained traction globally following the end of world War two with the creation of the new international order which has sought to promote peace and stability with the United Nations promoting democratic norms globally. This post-war period saw the rise of what has been termed the waves of democracy as it was also a period of decolonisation, promotion of human rights with the Bretton Woods Institutes being key proponents of this dispensation and has put this concept of elections to the test on a global scale as almost all countries host elections, regardless of how free and fair, flawed, just for show or for rubber stamping purposes. As we move further into the 21st century we will continue to witness vast changes of government as 2024 has already displayed with interesting scenarios emerging such as a GNU in South Africa, a likely change of government in the UK, a neck on neck race in the US, Namibia most likely to elect its first female President, and perhaps some surprise outcomes to come.

where to for South Africa after its 2024 elections?

South Africa has come out of one of its most important chapters in its young democratic history. Holding democratic elections which many countries simply cannot live up to. One of the most surprising outcomes was the poor performance of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) party which performed even below the worst case scenario as the party lost its majority for the first time since getting into power under Nelson Mandela in 1994.  I included as I placed them on at least 48%. This has meant the very high likelihood of a coalition government which will not be an easy task as the ANC will have to compromise and work with other parties in order to effectively promote stability in the nation. A trojan horse for the ANC came in the form of former President Jacob Zuma's less than a year old Umkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party which has created political Shockwaves throughout South Africa and came at a strong third place with almost 15% of the vote in such a short space of time. The MK party likely took away votes from the ANC and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) party as its supporters political views are not far off from both parties. The ANC has been seen as an "umbrella party" of different views and the MK party likely took away votes from the left wing of that party, particularly those who support Radical Economic Transformation (RET) policies such as the expropriation of land to the local population which is very popular amongst its supporters. The Democratic Alliance (DA) came in second place with about 22% of the votes and had managed to hold on to the Western Cape which has been seen as the most well run province. The DA's policies are not far off from those of the "ANC of Ramaphosa "(as termed by former President Jacob Zuma) and there are talks of a possible unity government between the two which some analysts state will be in the best interests for South Africa's economy as the markets were negative about an ANC-EFF-MK alliance. Although the ANC polled at around 40%,  many see the MK and EFF as just factions of the ANC and the combined total of these three parties reaches over 60% which shows a strong connection to the former ruling party with many members in the EFF and MK finding their origins in the ANC.

One highly unlikely outcome but narrowly possible is a surprise unity of all opposition parties when they all meet in the National Assembly to vote for a President as South Africa's elections are not based on voting for a personality but a party, as the President is voted in the National Assembly and as this day draws ever near, one wonders what surprises and twist and turns will occur that could turn the country on a different trajectory. Whatever scenario occurs South Africa's democratic institutions will be put to the test yet again and reveal the strength of the Rainbow nation and what this would mean for the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region and Africa as a whole. This important vote in choosing a President will take place today, Friday, June 14, 2024. 

UPDATE: Cyril Ramaphosa was elected in the National Assembly for a second term as South Africa's President. He was up against the leader of the EFF Julius Malema. Ramaphosa received 283 votes while Malema received 44 votes. South Africa will have a Government of National Unity (GNU).