The United States of America (USA) is scheduled to hold its Presidential election on Tuesday, 3 November 2020 and the events leading up to this date have been a bumpy ride to say the least and with the current coronavirus pandemic still ongoing, with the United States having the highest number of cases globally of over 1500000 with over 90000 deaths according to worldometer (as of 20 May, 2020), this has led to the outcome of the election being increasingly uncertain. However, it is quite clear at this juncture that the presidential election is between the incumbent President, Donald Trump and former Vice President and likely the 2020 Democratic nominee for president Joe Biden. Trump received very little opposition within republican ranks, with the Republican National Committee (RNC) going as far as ‘pledging undivided support’ for his re-election as early as the first quarter of 2019. The opposite however can be said for Joe Biden whose presidential campaign has been on a ‘roller-coaster’ even before it left the ground and his front runner status often coming into question, particularly after some poor performances on the debate stage and early democratic primary losses which caused his campaign to tank before making a resounding comeback after a much needed win in South Carolina following key endorsements, most prominently from Jim Clyburn who is the highest ranking African American in congress. Bernie Sanders endorsement followed a fiercely contested primary in an effort to unify the party and align behind Biden to defeat Trump. Biden has also received the endorsement of former President Barack Obama who remains popular among democrats and is seen as a kingmaker in that party.
‘The economic factor’
Prior to the coronavirus pandemic the US economy was doing well and of course President Trump was not shy in expressing it and mentioned that “it is the best it has ever been”. It also appears history has been on the side of US presidents presiding over strong economies, according to US News as it claims as many as five incumbent presidents failed to win re-elections because of being weighed down by economic crises, and these include Herbert Hoover, William Taft, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush. However, the emergence of the coronavirus has sent the US economy into a tailspin to levels not seen since the 2008 global financial crisis and even greater to as far back as the 1929 Great Depression with the official unemployment rate hitting 14.7% in April with over 20 million Americans unemployed as a result of the shutdowns on economic activity. This economic crisis has put a dent on Trumps re-election chances where he previously had been seen as the favourite to a larger extent. Despite the economic carnage caused by the pandemic Trump is still hopeful for economic growth in the fourth quarter and if the tide turns against the coronavirus and the economy were to rebound before the elections this could improve Trumps standing in the race.
The coronavirus pandemic has also led to the rare occasion where the election is not exclusively about the economy which was Trumps ‘re-election card’ and according to CNN ‘whoever is most trusted to deal with the coronavirus will win re-election’ and according to one poll Biden has been seen as more favourable among voters than Trump on handling the coronavirus by 56% to 40% margin. Biden has performed better in swing states such as Florida and Michigan and this could help him capture the 270 electoral votes. However, despite the ‘tide’ going in Biden’s favour at the moment as the white house has faced some staunch criticism for its handling of the coronavirus, the 2016 presidential election has been a case study on how polls can sometimes be wrong forecasters which at the time appeared largely in favour of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
‘The age factor’
President Donald Trump was elected as President of the United States at the age of 70 years old and this broke the record of the previous holder of the oldest tenant of the White House, Ronald Reagan who was 69 (Hillary Clinton would have also been 69 had she been declared the winner). The fact that the two front runners back in 2016 can be ‘considered old’ and Bernie Sanders (who was around 74 years old at the time) and has been popular among young voters and gave both Mrs Clinton and Mr Biden headaches on the campaign trail and at the time of dropping out of the 2020 democratic race at 78 still had considerable support. This vividly shows, in my view, that age will play a very small factor in this race with Trump (73) still having a considerable following and a strong base who feel the President has been unfairly targeted by the “ mainstream media” and “far-left”. We should also bear in mind that several leaders from around the world have been elected democratically such as the late Tunisian President, Beji Caid Essebsi who was elected at 88 in 2014, and former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad in 2018 at the age of 92 with young people been credited for propelling his Pakatan Harapan political party coalition to power which will bode well for Biden who hopes to attract the many young people who previously supported Sanders in the democratic primary and will be 77 years old should he win the election and break the record set by Trump on being the oldest president. Although Biden could find some of his gaffes as his undoing if he is not careful which will definitely be fodder for the Trump campaign. Thus, predicting who will win this election has proven to be a challenge, particularly with the current circumstances caused by the coronavirus pandemic, with the US political landscape being deeply divided along partisan lines, but regardless I have a ‘hunch’ of who ‘could’ most likely win the election, and how about YOU?
Hi Ryan,
ReplyDeleteIt's a pity I lost my first comment.
I think the virus might actually play into Trump's hands. As you said, the economy grew under his leadership. He might point to exactly that as proof that he could get Americans out of the post-Covid crisis. He has a good track record, in a sense. Also, it might be that his free market approach, less taxation, and pro-jobs format would be especially handy this year.
His past opposition to China has also been vindicated: People will (or should) agree with him now that America does indeed have to bring jobs out of China. He could even say that the tariffs already started to prevent an even greater connection with China which would have hurt them more right now. And with work more necessary than ever, Trump might do well there (though of course protectionism can undermine America's growth, but the popular perception might be in favour of his views).
I think the only benefits that Biden have is his support for medicare for all. That's a key area that, in popular imagination, America desperately needs. I do think the private hospitals are better, but Biden could easily speak about the poor and ethnic minorities and how they disproportionally suffer with Covid19.
Trump's bad handling of the crisis also undermines his otherwise "okay" view as a president. He lacked leadership. Biden could play on that. Especially with his age, something you mentioned. Older people are seen as more stable. Biden is also a familiar face, being Obama's VP.
But the guffaws are problematic for both Biden and Trump. As Shapiro said of Trump, Trump is Trump's worst enemy. The same with Biden. I the debates (will they still have debates?) will show just how ludicrous both of them are.
With coronavirus we really can't predict anything, but I wouldn't count Trump out just yet.
One more thing, it's interesting that both Clinton and Biden are remnants of Obama's legacy. If Trump wins, I think that would vindicate Trump's legacy over Obama's. But if Biden wins, then it could be a type of resurgence of Obama's policies. Just a thought
Interesting read!
ReplyDeleteHi Jacques,
Thanks for the comment. Your perspective on the 2020 election is indeed interesting. I see where you are coming from in terms of Trumps economic policy which could indeed work in his favour as some of his policies such as lower taxation has reduced the amount of federal income taxes, which is popular amongst many voters, which has the potential to to keep Trumps chances of being re-elected fairly high. The democrats want to increase taxes on the rich and corporations, which is also popular amongst voters.
The coronavirus has greatly affected the American economy and has led to a high unemployment rate and it appears that Trumps desire to bring back jobs to the country, including from China, could indeed work in his favour as you rightly pointed out. Indeed his protectionist policies remain one of the countries biggest economic concerns.
Interestingly enough Biden appears to not be in favour of medicare for all unlike some of his compatriots who were in the democratic primary such as Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders who championed it and is instead in favour of the Affordable Care Act, popularly known as ObamaCare and wants it strengthened and was quite popular with democrats as it was able to make 20 million Americans gain healthcare. Apparently Biden finds medicare for all costly and could eventually hurt the middle class.
Indeed Trumps handling of the coronavirus has dented his image, although he remains unfazed and is determined to get the economy back running. The democrats have continued to criticise his administrations response to the pandemic which will have some negative effect on his re-election campaign. Joe Biden's position as been Obama's Vice President has definitely given him an advantage in the race as he can tap into Obama's popularity.
Thats very true, the gaffes are definitely not coming from Biden alone. Trump has made a number of his own which have often been seen as controversial or comical but I must say its always surprising how he is able to survive them and if it was any of his predecessors making such gaffes they would have possibly resigned. Trumps method is very different from Obama who stayed out of controversy as much as possible. Yes, we await to see whether the debates will unfold or not. Perhaps if it is not feasible due to the coronavirus to have them face to face, perhaps they could be held online on zoom or skype but all this remains to be seen. Some of their gaffes will most likely be on display during the debate.
Yes, that is an interesting thought regarding Trump and Obama's legacy, hence making this a make or break election to both candidates.