The ANC's Future in Question: Will it Remain in Power by 2029?

The ANC, although still the dominant party, is no longer in the majority as its support has slipped well below 50%. Its performance in recent elections, where it garnered less than 40% in the 2024 elections, has forced it to join a Government of National Unity (GNU) with several other parties, such as the Democratic Alliance (DA), Patriotic Alliance (PA), and Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), to form a majority. Some analysts argue that it is not a Government of National Unity per se, but rather a coalition government, given that other parties are not part of it.

The ANC has governed South Africa since 1994 and has been at the helm for the last 31 years. However, it is now starting to wilt as the electorate becomes impatient and disillusioned by some of the myriad problems, such as the high crime rate, inequality, unemployment, and corruption scandals, to name but a few. The government of President Cyril Ramaphosa has attempted to engage these problems by forming commissions of inquiries, hosting meetings to hear the people's concerns, and has made great strides to spruce up its international image, following what some felt was tainted by some of the scandals of former President Jacob Zuma, who has since formed his own party, the Umkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party, which has shaken South African politics and came a surprising number three in the 2024 elections.

These new entrants, such as the MK party and the recently formed Mayibuye iAfrika party by the former Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) Deputy President and former Secretary-General of the MK party, Floyd Shivambu, have threatened the dominance of the ANC further, as it already has to deal with its coalition partner, the DA under its leader John Steenhuisen, which is the second-largest party in the country. Helen Zille is largely pulling the strings behind the scenes in the DA as the Federal Chairperson, and its successes in the Western Cape and local government have even been acknowledged by President Ramaphosa as something the ANC should admire and implement, which sparked amusement in the country and seemed like an indirect admission of some of the ANC's shortcomings.

Then there is the battered but resilient EFF under Julius Malema, who is determined to recover his party's footing following a string of defections and resignations and wants to show that his party is still a force to be reckoned with in South Africa's political space. Other parties punching above their weight include Gayton McKenzie's PA and the Freedom Front Plus under Pieter Groenewald, both of whom are in the current GNU and serve as Ministers.

All these factors have led to the ANC not only being unable to make a comeback but have also made a retreat inevitable from more voters unless it gets its house in order. Some desperate measures have been floated, such as roping in Patrice Motsepe, a wealthy businessman and one of the country's richest men, to the national stage, but Motsepe has since responded that this is not the case. However, this remains to be seen, as the next ANC congress to choose a new leader is two years away, and a lot can happen before then.

Come 2029, with the ANC's popularity declining and other parties coming onto the national stage, this analytical piece argues that the ANC will still be a major player but not a dominant player, as it has been up to now, and that GNU's and coalition governments will become the norm in South African politics going forward.