Opinion: Paul Biya is still Cameroon’s President but for how much longer

Paul Biya has been President of the Republic of Cameroon since 1982 and served as Prime Minister from 1975-1982. This puts a combined total of almost 45 years in a position of political power, making him the longest serving leader in Africa when including both his tenure as Prime Minister and his current tenure as President which is now in its 37^th year (making him the second longest ruling President in Africa currently after the President of Equatorial Guinea) . However, as history has shown us on the continent, the longer the leaders reign, the more controversial it becomes and Biya is no exception. To give a vivid example of African leaders, both past and present, who are or have ruled for a long time and have been deemed as controversial include Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe (37 years), Muammar Gaddafi of Libya (42 years), Kamuzu Banda of Malawi (30 years), Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo of Equatorial Guinea (40 years) and Yoweri Museveni of Uganda (34 years), to name a few. Hence, this opinion piece seeks to explore Biya’s rule, what has kept him in power for so long and why at 87 years of age (he is Africa’s oldest ruler) does he still hold on to power.

 

From Prime Minister to President

Paul Biya was sworn in as the country’s first Prime Minister on June 30, 1975 following amendments to the country’s constitution for this post proposed by the ruling party, the Cameroon National Union (CNU), which he previously served as Secretary-General. In 1979 he was designated as the successor to the founding father of Cameroon Ahmadou Ahidjo following a law that designated the Prime Minister as the President’s successor, according to bona udeze, in his book: Why Africa?: A Continent in a Dilemma of Unanswered Questions (2009). Ahmadou Ahidjo resigned and this paved way for Biya to succeed him as President on November 6, 1982. However, by 1983 tensions developed between Biya and Ahidjo whom the former accused the latter of orchestrating a coup allegedly through his aides according to a book published by Europa publishers titled: A Political Chronology of Africa (2001). This clash between Biya and Ahidjo gives us a vivid example of how Biya has come to treat his opponents or those he distrusts which has been evidently with a ‘heavy hand’ as this opinion piece will discuss on.

Paul Biya a democrat?

Paul Biya’s rule can largely be described as authoritarian and it appears that despite the country been a multi-party democracy the behaviour of the state and its conduct in various domains, particularly in the conduct of elections has made it to be seen as anything other than a fledging democracy. This is because the country has been run by the same political party since its independence from former colonial power France in 1960, albeit a renewed version of it called the People's Democratic Movement (RDPC) party that was founded by Biya in 1985. However, it was under Biya’s rule that Cameroon transitioned from a one-party state dominated by the CNU to a multi-party democracy and implemented a number of democratic reforms which his supporters credit him for. The RDPC has faced little resistance from other political parties as is evidenced by its ‘successful’ but ‘controversial’ wins in elections since the first democratic election in 1992 which the party narrowly won and has won all subsequent elections to date. Thus, this makes Cameroon a dominant-party system which Andrew Heywood defines in his book Politics (2013) as “a competitive system in which a number of parties compete for power in elections but is dominated by a single major party that consequently enjoys prolonged periods in power”.

The RDPC has been in power for 35 years but overall if we are to take into consideration the CNU before Biya reformed it, this will total 60 years this year. Other notable examples of dominant-party systems throughout the world include the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan, which was in power for 54 years until 2009, the Zimbabwe African National Union- Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) in Zimbabwe since 1980 and the African National Congress (ANC) in South Africa which has been in power since 1994. Heywood goes on to further state that although this system should not be confused with a one-party system (a system where only one political party virtually controls all institutions unopposed with a disregard by some for universal suffrage) which appears to have multiple interpretations, it may at times exhibit similar characteristics, with the RDPC seemingly behaving more like a one-party system that is intolerant of opposition than a multi-party system.

‘Election Authoritarianism’

The 1992 Presidential election was a landmark moment in Cameroon’s post-independent history and probably a moment the opposition in Cameroon regrets to ponder on as it was the closest they ever got to unseating Biya who won the election narrowly with about 40% of the vote and opposition leader John Fru Ndi acquiring almost 36% according to the African elections database. The decision to have this election came as a result of popular discontent and the ‘democratic wave’ sweeping the world following the fall of communism in 1989 in what US academic and political commentator Samuel P. Huntington called ‘the third wave’ of democracy. Despite this gesture by Biya to allow for a ‘democratic dispensation’ to materialise in Cameroon, make no mistake that Biya was going to allow it to happen ‘democratically’ as this was further from the truth as I will explain.

The Ministry of Territorial Administration (MINAT) managed the election and evidence of its bias were laid bare, as noted in Yonatan Morse, in his article Electoral authoritarianism and weak states in Africa: The role of parties versus presidents in Tanzania and Cameroon (2017), as the MINAT was under the president’s purview. Officers were appointed by Biya and shockingly opposition parties were prevented from monitoring sub-divisional tallying centers resulting in many seeing these elections as fraudulent. This appears to be the case with subsequent elections in 1997, 2004, 2011 and 2018 where the opposition parties have alleged widespread fraud and with the exception of the 1992 election Biya has attained over 70% of the vote ever since. His rule is set to continue as a controversial amendment to the constitution scrapped the limit to presidential terms in 2008.

This undemocratic approach to elections reveals why Biya has remained in power to date with the recent elections in 2018 merely affirming this as Biya clinched yet another win in ‘authoritarian fashion’ as he has done so since 1992, hence the phrase ‘election authoritarianism’ being a fitting description to this political soap opera which has been well oiled and stage managed. The use of fake election observers or “zombie observers” as it is termed in the 2018 election was one of the most spectacular political circuses I have ever come across as was the case with so called international observers calling the elections “good” during an interview on Cameroon Radio Television and allegedly claimed were representing Transparency International which Transparency International denied according to Foreign Policy. This vividly shows how far Biya will go to stay in power and he has certainly mastered the art of staying in power but for how much longer as the state appears to be in an early phase of disintegration unless urgent democrat reforms are implemented.

This is because  “It is now facing widespread political strife and conflict on another front following the insurgency in the country’s North with Boko Haram, that has taken aim at the country’s very foundation, the combination of French- and English-speaking regions into a single state” according to Foreign Policy. This latest conflict in Cameroon’s anglophone region in the North-West and South-West has escalated into a dangerous separatist movement following protests by lawyers and teachers demanding better provision for the use of English leading Cameroon to be on the brink of a wide-scale civil war. The question that arises here is; does Biya really have the energy to face these crises and with old age creeping up could he eventually be disposed in the same manner as Zimbabwe’s late former President Robert Mugabe (aged 93 at the time) who was forced to resign following a military intervention in November, 2017.

 

‘Absent President’

Paul Biya is seen as having a “hands off” approach to governing Cameroon. This can be attributed to the country’s unusual dual heritage of both British and French colonial rule where the President since 1982 is from the francophone regions, while the Prime Minster is from the anglophone regions and as head of government Biya leaves the Prime Minister to do the job (however Biya who is the Head of State still holds most executive powers), hence Biya’s hands off approach according to a Cameroonian analyst. However, this absence which Cameroonians have become accustomed to has also been attributed to Biya’s poor health as he is almost 90 years old. Biya was largely absent from the campaign trail prior to the country’s 2018 election and made only a few public appearances and left most of the campaign work to his aides. His most recent high-profile absence even caused death rumours forcing the government to issue a denial of it. This is because, like almost every country in the world, Cameroon has also been affected by the recent outbreak of the coronavirus and finally made a televised address to the nation after two months of silence on May 19, 2020 with his previous address to the nation being on March 5, 2020, which is unusually scarce for such a serious situation where many world leaders have been making regular televised addresses, some having them almost daily to reassure their nations which Cameroonians have also come to expect from their leader. Biya is known for been out of his country for long periods of time which solidifies him being called an ‘absent president’.

According to the Organised Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) Biya has spent at least four-and-a-half years on his “brief private visits” during the course of his presidency and In some years, like 2006 and 2009, Biya has spent a third of the year out of the country, with his favourite destination apparently being the five-star Intercontinental Hotel in Geneva which has striking views of Lake Geneva and Mont Blanc. The coronavirus pandemic comes at an incredibly difficult time for the country adding to the woes of the already crisis hit nation where strong democrat leadership is needed with a visible president to help guide the country through this challenging period.

 

 

Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?

The United States of America (USA) is scheduled to hold its Presidential election on Tuesday, 3 November 2020 and the events leading up to this date have been a bumpy ride to say the least and with the current coronavirus pandemic still ongoing, with the United States having the highest number of cases globally of over 1500000 with over 90000 deaths according to worldometer (as of 20 May, 2020), this has led to the outcome of the election being increasingly uncertain. However, it is quite clear at this juncture that the presidential election is between the incumbent President, Donald Trump and former Vice President and likely the 2020 Democratic nominee for president Joe Biden. Trump received very little opposition within republican ranks, with the Republican National Committee (RNC) going as far as ‘pledging undivided support’ for his re-election as early as the first quarter of 2019. The opposite however can be said for Joe Biden whose presidential campaign has been on a ‘roller-coaster’ even before it left the ground and his front runner status often coming into question, particularly after some poor performances on the debate stage and early democratic primary losses which caused his campaign to tank before making a resounding comeback after a much needed win in South Carolina following key endorsements, most prominently from Jim Clyburn who is the highest ranking African American in congress. Bernie Sanders endorsement followed a fiercely contested primary in an effort to unify the party and align behind Biden to defeat Trump. Biden has also received the endorsement of former President Barack Obama who remains popular among democrats and is seen as a kingmaker in that party.  

‘The economic factor’

Prior to the coronavirus pandemic the US economy was doing well and of course President Trump was not shy in expressing it and mentioned that “it is the best it has ever been”. It also appears history has been on the side of US presidents presiding over strong economies, according to US News as it claims as many as five incumbent presidents failed to win re-elections because of being weighed down by economic crises, and these include Herbert Hoover, William Taft, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush. However, the emergence of the coronavirus has sent the US economy into a tailspin to levels not seen since the 2008 global financial crisis and even greater to as far back as the 1929 Great Depression with the official unemployment rate hitting 14.7% in April with over 20 million Americans unemployed as a result of the shutdowns on economic activity. This economic crisis has put a dent on Trumps re-election chances where he previously had been seen as the favourite to a larger extent. Despite the economic carnage caused by the pandemic Trump is still hopeful for economic growth in the fourth quarter and if the tide turns against the coronavirus and the economy were to rebound before the elections this could improve Trumps standing in the race.

The coronavirus pandemic has also led to the rare occasion where the election is not exclusively about the economy which was Trumps ‘re-election card’ and according to CNN ‘whoever is most trusted to deal with the coronavirus will win re-election’ and according to one poll Biden has been seen as more favourable among voters than Trump on handling the coronavirus by 56% to 40% margin. Biden has performed better in swing states such as Florida and Michigan and this could help him capture the 270 electoral votes. However, despite the ‘tide’ going in Biden’s favour at the moment as the white house has faced some staunch criticism for its handling of the coronavirus, the 2016 presidential election has been a case study on how polls can sometimes be wrong forecasters which at the time appeared largely in favour of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. 

‘The age factor’

President Donald Trump was elected as President of the United States at the age of 70 years old and this broke the record of the previous holder of the oldest tenant of the White House, Ronald Reagan who was 69 (Hillary Clinton would have also been 69 had she been declared the winner). The fact that the two front runners back in 2016 can be ‘considered old’ and Bernie Sanders (who was around 74 years old at the time) and has been popular among young voters and gave both Mrs Clinton and Mr Biden headaches on the campaign trail and at the time of dropping out of the 2020 democratic race at 78 still had considerable support. This vividly shows, in my view, that age will play a very small factor in this race with Trump (73) still having a considerable following and a strong base who feel the President has been unfairly targeted by the “ mainstream media” and “far-left”. We should also bear in mind that several leaders from around the world have been elected democratically such as the late Tunisian President, Beji Caid Essebsi who was elected at 88 in 2014, and former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad in 2018 at the age of 92 with young people been credited for propelling his Pakatan Harapan political party coalition to power which will bode well for Biden who hopes to attract the many young people who previously supported Sanders in the democratic primary and will be 77 years old should he win the election and break the record set by Trump on being the oldest president. Although Biden could find some of his gaffes as his undoing if he is not careful which will definitely be fodder for the Trump campaign. Thus, predicting who will win this election has proven to be a challenge, particularly with the current circumstances caused by the coronavirus pandemic, with the US political landscape being deeply divided along partisan lines, but regardless I have a ‘hunch’ of who ‘could’ most likely win the election, and how about YOU?

How African countries can overcome the coronavirus through an Afrocentric perspective

This blog post will discuss how African countries can overcome the coronavirus (COVID-19) which has caused a number of problems, including socio-economical issues, throughout the world as many countries grapple with finding solutions to approach this pandemic which has infected millions around the world and has killed hundreds of thousands.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has defined this newly discovered coronavirus as an infectious disease in which most people infected with this virus experience mild to moderate respiratory illness and recover without requiring specific treatment. Older people and those with underlying health problems are more at risk and various preventive measures have been encouraged, including washing hands and not touching your face. At present there are no specific treatments or vaccines but a number clinical trials are underway for potential treatments.

In this blog post an Afrocentric perspective has been identified as the best way the African continent can tackle this pandemic. Hence, this blog post seeks to bring into the forefront a theory/perspective that has not been given enough space to be expressed and how it aims to assist African states to overcome the effects caused by this pandemic.

What is Afrocentrism?

The term 'Afrocentrism' consists of multiple interpretations but for the purposes of this blog post I will define it as a non-western International Relations theory/perspective as a lens that takes into consideration the historical and political context of Africa by Africans, as opposed to looking at the continent only from a Eurocentric narrative or perspective. I want to make it clear that this is not an anti-western think piece but rather one that introduces new perspectives to the discipline of International Relations (IR). Hence, to sum up this perspective, it is advocating for 'African Solutions to African problems', a term coined by Ghanaian political economist George Ayittey in 1994.

 'African solutions for African problems'

The African continent has for long been influenced by external forces in dealing with its huge myriad of problems, most notably the 2011 Libyan Civil War which resulted in the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) taking a leading role as opposed to the more appropriate African Union (AU) since this was the continental bloc Libya was a member of and could have provided more lasting solutions as the continental body would have been more understanding of Libya's context. In the same manner this is how the continent should tackle the coronavirus by tailoring covid-19 research to its realities as the continent can apply its own lessons it has learned from battling epidemics such as Ebola and HIV, as well as from countries where covid-19 outbreaks may be peaking or have already peaked.

According the late South African sociologist Archie Mafeje there is a need for Africans to be "rooted" in Africa, just as Max Weber was "rooted" in Europe and this is an indigenous African concept known as Endogeneity. Endogeny refers to an intellectual standpoint derived from a rootedness in African conditions and this concept should become the cornerstone and lens through which the continent can effectively approach the coronavirus pandemic. Hence, it is imperative that more African medical researchers should be involved in research in finding a cure and coming up with effective treatments as they are “rooted” in Africa, as noted by The Guardian, not least because regulatory authorities in Africa will require local data on Covid-19 patients to register any new drug. Local researchers are also more likely to maintain the trust of the population and this is largely due to the continent been victim to 'medical discrimination' at the hands of European countries in the past and from large pharmaceutical companies.

The recent racist statements by two French doctors on live TV that vaccine trials should be tested on poor Africans was totally unacceptable and received widespread condemnation including from popular retired footballer Didier Drogba and the Director General of the WHO Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus who mentioned that "Africa can't and won't be a testing ground for any vaccine". Hence the need yet again for Africa to be treated as an equal partner on the global stage and to be treated fairly and given a platform to also allow its own medical researchers to come up with potential treatments and cures for covid-19 rather than only giving this mandate to the global north which is extremely unfair. The inclusion of African medical researchers could perhaps increase the chances of finding an effective treatment and even a cure at a faster rate as humanity is depended on it as more people worldwide will die should this process take a long time as many experts in the field have claimed, such as American physician and immunologist Dr Anthony Fauci who mentions that a vaccine could only be available in 12 to 18 months.

Are there specific treatments on the continent?

At present the answer is no. However, in Madagascar the government has proposed a herbal tonic called Covid-Organics as it has claimed it 'has been a success' in curbing the countries coronavirus rates as it has experienced no deaths to date. However, the WHO has cautioned people against using untested remedies such as Covid-Organics which appears not to be in line with WHO guidelines on clinical trials. Although it has been well noted that Senegal has been developing cost-effective test kits for covid-19 through its AIDS and Ebola experience which will cost just US$1 which will make it the cheapest globally and this will indeed be a game changer globally as it will not only be able to successfully increase the scale of testing, but it will give empirical evidence that Africa indeed has what it takes to come up with medical solutions just as successfully as western nations. 

The African Union (AU) is in discussions with Madagascar to obtain technical data regarding the safety and efficiency of the Covid-Organics herbal remedy which has gained media attention throughout Africa and will review the scientific data gathered through the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention and base it on global technical and ethical norms. The WHO has stated that it welcomes traditional remedies such as Covid-Organics so long as they are tested as "Africans deserve to use medicines tested to the same standards as people in the rest of the world".