The rise of a Multipolar world

The 21st century has truly arrived like a sci-fi movie where the viewer in the year 1999 is watching a television show about how the world will be in the next 20 years. Mind boggling to the viewer at the turn of the millennium but not so for the one actually living in 2022. Let's recap on what has transpired briefly geopolitically since 1999. One key element of the world of 1999 was that there was a great sense of unipolarity in the international system. This stems from the end of the Cold War in 1991 following the collapse of the Soviet Union, which broke up the then bipolar world order of the 20th century. Indeed the only viable world power at that time was non other than the United States. The United States in 1999 was under a Democratic President, Bill Clinton. The US was on a mission to spread democracy across the world and Clinton himself elevated his role to be that of peacemaker as was noted in the Balkans and Northern Ireland. A number of event's of international proportion set the pace for the reconfiguration of the geopolitical landscape which changed the world as we knew it with event's such as 9/11 shaping the world towards a new trajectory and realignment. 

Political scientist Francis Fukuyama came up with the idea of "end of history" to almost coronate US hegemony and western epistemology on the global stage and the set standard of how the world system should be governed following the fall of communism. How wrong he was as this western lens was only a magnifying glass to the west and appeared to give little regard to the non-western world and all its ideologies and contributions to the geopolitical landscape. A rising China was one of them and one the West quickly took note of as the country entered the world stage thanks largely to the economic policies, and political reform (as meager as they were) under the leadership of Deng Xiaoping which began in the late 1970s following the passing of its first leader under the Chinese Communist Party, Chairman Mao Zedong in 1976. The US saw massive competition in almost every sphere by a rising China while at the same time a resurgent Russia rising from the ashes of the Soviet Union under its leader Vladimir Putin who today, like China's current leader Xi Jinping, whi have been seen as pariahs by the international community (mainly in the west), as the geopolitical space experiences yet another shaking as these two nations seek to rise to challenge the US for greater influence on the world stage.

I mentioned multipolar for a reason as these are not the only nations with noting. Multipolarity can be defined as the distribution of power globally that is not limited to just two nations. The inclusion of Unions also puts into perspective of where the world is moving with the European Union really flexing its muscles, despite Brexit undermining its influence and authority, and futurists or anti globalist thinkers link to a pathway to a future world government. While other unions or alliances are still building themselves, and some if not most have multiple overlaps, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), AUKUS alliance ,G7, Eurasian Union, African Union etc come to mind. However most of these are "talking shops" rather than actual policy driven organisations, hence the Westphalian system of the nation state is still very much alive and more effective than ever. Hence, we are seen other countries around the world taking up this space with their neighborhoods being their first port of call to show their influence, whether diplomatically, economically or dare I say coercively. These nations include Turkey, India, Japan, and Australia to name a few. Others are also showing or have already been showing considerable influence in their region or sphere of influence and include South Africa which acts as a regional power in Africa, particularly in Southern Africa, Brazil in South America and Germany in Europe. Here lies the multipolar universe in action. Decolonial thinker Ramón Grosfoguel has discussed a concept called pluriversality which can be defined as a world with many worlds and this is exactly where the current geopolitical environment is currently at and growing. We expect to see more countries rising to take up space on the geopolitical landscape as progress further into the 'unpredictable times' of the 21st century.

Rupiah Banda's political and diplomatic career

Rupiah Banda was the former President of the Republic of Zambia, a country he ruled for 3 years from 2008 to 2011. He took over from the late Levy Mwanawasa who he served under as Vice President and won an election that was held following Mwanawasa's passing before being defeated in the 2011 general elections to opposition leader Michael Sata. Banda had a reputation for being a leader that exemplified humility and was easy to approach and this description was clearly stated by former Botswana President Ian Khama at his funeral where Khama described him a 'nice politician'. His political career was a long one but what is fascinating about Banda was the immense responsibilities that were given to him at an early age which this think piece wants to explore further. Given that today in Africa positions such as President, Minister, Ambassador and various roles in government are held by people who can be considered old, this think piece wants to argue in favour of the younger generation taking up these positions. Many of Africa's founding fathers were actually quite young when comparing them to todays leaders and so was their cabinets. Although Banda attained the presidency at the age of 71 which can be considered old what this think piece wants to explore is how he was allowed to handle positions of authority early in his career which today are occupied by the older generation or the 'old guard' as they are often termed in Africa without giving the younger generation the same opportunities they were given early in their political and diplomatic careers. 

'Ambassador before aged 30'

Banda's interests in politics came at an early age, particularly through his association with the Naik family who were political activists and it was likely here where his interest in politics began. He was also previously a member of the Zambian African National Congress (ZANC) under Harry Nkumbula before attending university in Ethiopia and Sweden. While in Sweden he changed his political allegiance to the United National Independence Party (UNIP) under Kenneth Kaunda in the early 1960's and served as UNIP's representative to Northern Europe where he was responsible for raising awareness for the party and its intentions in his early 20's. The first highlight for him came when he was named as the country's first ambassador to Egypt at just 27 years of age, almost unimaginable in Africa today, probably due to his experience he garnered in Sweden where he previously served as UNIP's representative for Northern Europe. Thus his diplomatic career began. In 1967 he became Zambia's ambassador to the United States at the age of 30 and served as ambassador for two years. This entails that Banda served as ambassador for two countries at a crucial and critical moment in his country's early post-independent history by just 30 years of age.

In 1974 he became the country's permanent representative to the United Nations (UN) aged 37 and headed an important position as President of the UN Council on Namibia which was seen as the government of Namibia at the time. In 1975, aged 38 he became Zambia's Minister of Foreign Affairs during the height of the Southern African regions independence struggles which Zambia played a key role in as it hosted many liberation movements from the region such as South Africa's African National Congress (ANC) and Zimbabwe African People's Union (ZAPU) and as a result of his tenure as Foreign Minister 'Banda is known by, and has interacted extensively with many of the leaders of the region today'. This vividly shows how the Kaunda administration, at least in its early years allowed young people to take on such important portfolio's be it in diplomacy or politically and Banda as a young person proved himself in these important positions he held and it is not a surprise that he eventually became President following an illustrious diplomatic and political career in 2008.

Presidency

He briefly retired from politics briefly before bouncing back in 2002 when he joined the Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) and became Vice President in 2006. He took over the presidency in 2008 following the death of President Mwanawasa and won an election that was held not long after. His presidency was largely a success, albeit for corruption allegations and nepotism, and was accused of disbanding his predecessors anti-corruption task force. The successes of his presidency stem from the country experiencing major economic growth which led to the Zambian economy expanding during his brief tenure as president thanks to rising copper prices and an increase in Chinese investment with the country experiencing a 7.6% growth in 2011 which Banda had hoped would help him win the 2011 elections which unfortunately did not occur as he lost the election to Michael Sata of the Patriotic Front (PF).

Post-presidency

Since the end of his presidency he has settled in his role as an African statesman and frequently headed election observer missions on the continent. In 2013 he had his Presidential immunity removed, the second time this has happened in Zambia, but was never convicted. In 2021 following the country's presidential election Banda hosted President-elect Hakainde Hichilema and Edgar Lungu who had lost the presidential elections to Hichilema, at his residence, to ensure a smooth transfer of power. Banda acted as a mediator of sort between the two and took the role of 'father of the nation' previously held by the country's founding father, Kenneth Kaunda, who had passed on a few months earlier, and used his position to bring stability during that critical period which was welcomed. He died on 11 March, 2022 following a two year battle with colon cancer. 

 

Opinion: What is holding Africa back from creating a supranational state

The 'term' United States of Africa has been one key term towards integrating Africa as one national entity. The founding fathers of the continent supported this ideal but were divided as to how to go about this quest with two camps arising being the Radical approach lead by Ghana's first independence leader Kwame Nkrumah (1909-1972) and the gradualist approach which opted more for a gradual path towards total integration. The radical approach argued for the continent to be integrated into a single entity, to chart its path and make its mark on the world stage in the same vein as the superpowers of the time. This was the 1960s where two superpowers dominated the international arena, that is the United States and the Soviet Union. Everybody else could be seen as a 'minion' of these two powers with a more non-aligned movement arguing to be in between which I find 'unreal' as it appeared in my view to side with the communist corner. In my opinion only a few countries were really non-aligned and that would be Josip Tito's Yugoslavia. In the African continent no nation was really "non-aligned" despite many being part of this movement as they either were pro-capitalist or pro-communist. The correct term I would use would be pro-United States or pro-Soviet Union as most African states applied capitalist or communist norms to the level of their chosen side. A key example is the Democratic Republic of Congo's Mobutu Sese Seko (1930-1997) who, although was supported by the United States as he was seen as anti-communist, that support ended there as Mobutu ruled with an iron fist and looted billions of dollars from his country, leaving it poor and underdeveloped with its effects being felt to this day with his 'only' positive attribute being able to keep the country 'stable' than his successors after him. 

To get back to the point, these two schools came together and formed the Organisation of African Unity (OAU), the predecessor of the African Union, regarding African integration when this organisation was formed in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia in 1963. The Gradualist Approach opted for a sub-regional specific form of integration, which gained traction with the formation of the African economic community formed in the 1991 to facilitate regional integration between Member States of the AU through Regional Economic Communities (RECs) during the second phase of regionalism with regions such as the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the East African Community (EAC) being seen as pieces of a large jigsaw puzzle towards full integration. Where we are today is anyone's guess with each region progressing on one aspect but falling short on important areas. The formation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) has been seen as an ambitious aim towards greater integration on the continent. There have been several attempts at making this a reality radically in the past with the one standing out the most coming from the late Libyan ruler Muammar Gaddafi.

The United States of Africa according to Gaddafi 

Gaddafi clearly steered this ideal and played an important role in the formation of the OAU's successor the AU (formed in 2002) which was discussed during the the fourth Extraordinary Session of the OAU Assembly of African Heads of State and Government held at Sirte in Libya, in his own country in 1999. Like him or not but Gaddafi, along with Nigeria's President Olusegun Obasanjo and South African President Thabo Mbeki played a key role in this formation and he came up with really good points such as a single passport for Africans to move freely around the continent when he became the chairman of the AU in 2009 which was the time when the 'United States of Africa' concept really 'took off'. I admit it's a lot more complicated than that and while this looked like a good gesture among several points he stated, there appeared to be just as many red flags.

Gaddafi's United States of Africa: 'Ambitious, delusional or something totally different'

Gaddafi always did something with what he could get out of it. He never took the charge towards giving leadership towards this ideal without putting himself as a candidate. Remember Gaddafi had a 'unlimited' wallet to 'buy' allies on the continent towards his views due to Libya's huge deposits of oil which likely boosted his ego as his regime received billions of dollars worth of oil revenue making him probably one of the richest people on earth with some claiming it to be as high as US$ 200 billion.

This was further exacerbated by the fact that Gaddafi had been in power for 40 years and ruled with an iron fist and would have probably did so should he have become leader of the United States of Africa given the fact that he was already interfering in many African states. It is not surprising that some African states were opposed to this and this included Botswana's then Vice President  Mompati Merafhe who criticised this federation following the 2009 AU Summit and stated that “The chair (Gaddafi) has no respect for established procedures and processes of the African Union and this may be motivated by his burning desire to coerce everyone into the premature establishment of an African Union government,”. Gaddafi himself despite the success he had attained for his country before the Arab Spring in 2011 which made Libya Africa's richest country with Libyans enjoying a high standard of living, he was no democrat and this explains his demise and a history of authoritarian rule that once placed his country as a state sponsor of terrorism. This was probably on many African leaders minds and it does not end there, there is more to this story regarding Gaddafi's new found interest. 

The Arab League and Gaddafi 

Libya is located in North Africa which is predominantly Arab and a union to support its interests was formed called the Arab League. Gaddafi often made a scene at Arab League conferences with one public spat involving King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia and himself. It is claimed that when Gaddafi failed to exert his influence over the Arab League he then shifted goal posts to focus on the AU with more vigour of which Libya is a member and had greater influence.

Back to the United States of Africa

The addition of Gaddafi's perspective is key to understanding this concept, hence this is why I deliberately focused on it extensively to show the positives as well as the negatives surrounding this concept. Gaddafi is not by any means the only player, the whole continent is involved in this concepts success but how are they fairing.

Existential Crisis 

It appears the concept for a United States of Africa is in an existential crisis even before being formed due largely to lack of continental cohesion. This cohesion is limited to the once yearly conference in Addis Ababa where all African leaders say wonderful things regarding Pan-Africanism and continental integration. Once they are back home national development becomes their main focus. This is expected as running a country on it's own is complex. The European Union (EU) sheds light into this with some of it's own member states criticizing what they see as overreaching powers of the EU threatening national sovereignty with Hungary and Poland being examples and at least one total withdrawal from the Union being the United Kingdom (UK) with ramifications for the EU. These are future prospects the a proposed United States of Africa will face and perhaps total integration is not only unrealistic given the current political, social and economic climate of its member states but practically impossible (at least in today's circumstances). African countries are notoriously nationalistic in nature and will give up very little of their sovereignty even if it's for the greater good. 

A key example is the number of African countries requiring Visa's from many fellow African compatriots. This beggars belief as some countries outside of the continent have no Visa restrictions or less restrictions to entry. One then wonders what they talk about at the AU's headquarters in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia during the annual conference which will be 59 years this year. More than enough time in my opinion to have a more sound integration policy. 

This came to light when one of Africa's richest men, Aliko Dangote of Nigeria argued that he needed 38 Visa's to travel within the continent. Ironically a milestone was set by the AU member states in 2013 to end this by 2018 but very little has been done on this front to date, a time consuming 9 years later. This highlights the view of a supranational entity being created on the continent unrealistic and at least for the time being a pipe dream unless member states change their small nationalistic view to a continental one. I believe this is the piece of the puzzle that will change the course of Africa from its current quagmire today, with the right leadership of course which still needs to be addressed with more younger leaders being needed in Africa, to attain greater unity and real pan-Africanism that is not just limited to just grand speeches, working papers, etc. The argument for more younger leaders is important as the average age of an African leader is an unbelievable 62 years old and is home to some of the world's oldest leaders. Paul Biya of Cameroon (whom I discussed in one of my blog posts) will be 89 years this year. Several other previous leaders even ruled into their 90's and include Kamuzu Banda of Malawi and Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe, all of whom ruled for decades. This explains the lack of innovation and reformist attitudes within the AU. To get this done all member states must be of one mind and aim to get their citizens on board as well with the AU itself accepting reform and not been seeing as protecting the status quo which many believe it is doing. The recent chaos in the pan-African parliament put yet another spotlight on  the AU's divisions and disorganisation and lack of reformation which in the organisation as a whole is long overdue.

Hakainde Hichilima: How Zambia's new President aims to rule differently

The country of Zambia for the last 30 years has been a beacon of democracy in the Southern African region and this is testament to the various transitions of power, not just of Presidents but of ruling parties as well, in a region which has been beset by dominant-party systems. Thus, Zambia's democracy can be seen as consolidated as it has matured as a result of holding elections which, although have been contested at various junctions, has led to a change in both the executive and political party and this process has helped to keep Zambia's democratic norms and ethics alive. This is not to say that the transition to democracy in the country was by any means smooth. Quite the opposite as the country came out of 27 years as a one-party state led by its first President Kenneth Kaunda (1924-2021). Unlike many in the continent Kaunda read the public mood and finally settled for a multi-party democracy at a time many on the continent opted for one-party states. His successor Frederick Chiluba (1943-2011) won resoundingly in 1991 but in just a few years that democracy began to experience fissures with Kaunda been a clear target to Chiluba's power and was subsequently arrested in 1997 before a domestic and international outcry led to his release. This type of oppression of opponents seems to have repeated itself in Zambia 20 years later when opposition leader 

'History repeating itself'

Hakainde Hichilima experienced this first hand following a meager issue involving his motorcade not giving way to the presidential motorcade that led to his incarceration for 4 months. This occurred at a time when then President Edgar Lungu seemed to have desired to consolidate his power as he aimed to run for a third term in 2021 which was Hichilima's sixth attempt since running against incumbent President Levy Mwanawasa in 2006 who was a popular President at the time. Zambia since that time has been dealing with a democratic deficit and many political commentators noted that unless there was an overhaul of Zambia's politics the country was sliding towards a pariah status and authoritarian state.

'The youth vote prevails' 

The 2021 elections proved beyond reasonable doubt that change was possible with Hichilima's United Party for National Development (UPND) winning resoundingly by a million votes more than Lungu's Patriotic Front thanks largely to the youth vote. This was due to Hakainde's UPND party intensifying its campaign towards young voters who were fed up with poverty, inequality and unemployment, as well as a myriad of problems. His inauguration was a breath of fresh air and he even invited opposition leaders and figures from the region, a completely different tone to the status quo. In his speech he stated his presidential goals which were encouraging and set the tone for his presidency which continues to be scrutinised but yet celebrated as a rare moment in African politics. 

'Democracy wins'

To date newly elected President Hichilima continues to break with the status quo and implement much needed reforms to develop Zambia in addition to improving and promoting democratic norms and practices which under the previous administration appeared to be trampled on. Our hope is for President Hichilima to follow through on all his campaign pledges and fulfill the aspirations of the voters, particularly the youth who came out in their numbers to support him. Zambia has a myriad of problems, chief among them being Chinese debt which the China Africa Research Initiative (CARI) states is as high as US$6.6 billion. He has also been negotiating a bailout with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for an extended credit facility. His 100 days in office have yielded a mixture of successes such as restoring the rule of law which is very important in moving the country towards a consolidated democratic path while causes of concern include unemployment which continues to be a problem as it is still too high but these are early days but his supporters want him to act quickly on such pertinent issues. We encourage him to stay on this positive trajectory of consolidating democratic values and norms and be a formidable example to future generations as he builds Zambia towards a much hoped for prosperous future.