The ANC's Future in Question: Will it Remain in Power by 2029?

The ANC, although still the dominant party, is no longer in the majority as its support has slipped well below 50%. Its performance in recent elections, where it garnered less than 40% in the 2024 elections, has forced it to join a Government of National Unity (GNU) with several other parties, such as the Democratic Alliance (DA), Patriotic Alliance (PA), and Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), to form a majority. Some analysts argue that it is not a Government of National Unity per se, but rather a coalition government, given that other parties are not part of it.

The ANC has governed South Africa since 1994 and has been at the helm for the last 31 years. However, it is now starting to wilt as the electorate becomes impatient and disillusioned by some of the myriad problems, such as the high crime rate, inequality, unemployment, and corruption scandals, to name but a few. The government of President Cyril Ramaphosa has attempted to engage these problems by forming commissions of inquiries, hosting meetings to hear the people's concerns, and has made great strides to spruce up its international image, following what some felt was tainted by some of the scandals of former President Jacob Zuma, who has since formed his own party, the Umkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party, which has shaken South African politics and came a surprising number three in the 2024 elections.

These new entrants, such as the MK party and the recently formed Mayibuye iAfrika party by the former Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) Deputy President and former Secretary-General of the MK party, Floyd Shivambu, have threatened the dominance of the ANC further, as it already has to deal with its coalition partner, the DA under its leader John Steenhuisen, which is the second-largest party in the country. Helen Zille is largely pulling the strings behind the scenes in the DA as the Federal Chairperson, and its successes in the Western Cape and local government have even been acknowledged by President Ramaphosa as something the ANC should admire and implement, which sparked amusement in the country and seemed like an indirect admission of some of the ANC's shortcomings.

Then there is the battered but resilient EFF under Julius Malema, who is determined to recover his party's footing following a string of defections and resignations and wants to show that his party is still a force to be reckoned with in South Africa's political space. Other parties punching above their weight include Gayton McKenzie's PA and the Freedom Front Plus under Pieter Groenewald, both of whom are in the current GNU and serve as Ministers.

All these factors have led to the ANC not only being unable to make a comeback but have also made a retreat inevitable from more voters unless it gets its house in order. Some desperate measures have been floated, such as roping in Patrice Motsepe, a wealthy businessman and one of the country's richest men, to the national stage, but Motsepe has since responded that this is not the case. However, this remains to be seen, as the next ANC congress to choose a new leader is two years away, and a lot can happen before then.

Come 2029, with the ANC's popularity declining and other parties coming onto the national stage, this analytical piece argues that the ANC will still be a major player but not a dominant player, as it has been up to now, and that GNU's and coalition governments will become the norm in South African politics going forward.

Artificial Intelligence: The great equalizer?

AI is an amazing technological advancement. It was almost science fiction just a few years ago and this shows the amazing way we as humans always seem to adapt and eventually adjust to the changes. The internet as we no it today is now a normal part of our lives and not anything to be moved or shocked by. This was not the case when it became mainstream around three decades ago with websites such as google taking the world by storm which shows the ability for man to adjust to technological advancements. The Y2K scare did not result in any doomsday scenario many considered or crazy disruption and this should not be viewed any differently with AI although with each advancement comes disruption of some sort to the system such as certain jobs going under as AI is largely viewed on replacing humans in some sectors as it continues to advance. Countries around the world have advocated for some framework to keep AI from causing major disruptions but others have argued the horse has already long left the stable. The amazing way AI can interpret questions, provide answers,  down to suggesting how to approach any situation it can be asked. It still largely gets its information from what is already online so it's not getting information from "nowhere" so to speak but it's ability to reason and even think beyond human comprehension and intelligence is remarkable and to some frightening. The world as we know it will become different because of it and by 2030 the world as we know it today will look different from where it is today at the time of this article in 2025 as many technological advances occur with AI playing a leading role in this advancement. All AI needs is a good internet connection and it's services are at a click of a button anywhere in the world. Every country in the world rich and poor is now connected to the internet in some format. Some of course have more restrictions than others but this does not reduce its global reach and ability to influence all corners of the globe. This makes AI have a greater potential to uplift the lives of those in poorer regions while making richer ones more successful as it spearheads advancements in a variety of fields from medical advancements to coming up with ways of how to reduce global inequality. The list is endless and as people use it appropriately it can be a force of good towards a brighter future so long as it operates in the right hands.

Impact Beyond Borders: Pope Francis and Raila Odinga's Enduring Influence

2025 has been marked by the passing of significant individuals who played key roles in shaping their spheres of influence in a number of ways and one can argue even in the world at large. This article will focus specifically on two key players; Pope Francis and Raila Odinga. The focus on these two individuals is due to their diverse backgrounds as a way of showing leadership geopolitically from vast corners of the world and arenas and not solely focusing on one specific region, hemisphere or continent which is what I am interested in focusing on in my blog posts.

These two individuals although have their origins from different parts of the world, it is notable that they share several tenets, one of them being the focus on uplifting the poorer members of society as was evident during Pope Francis time as head of the catholic church and although he lacked geographic sovereignty over a specific area as this was only confined to the Vatican city which is very small in area, what the Vatican lacked in geography was met with the great influence of the Catholic faith with over one billion global followers has made the Catholic church a force to be reckoned with and has played important roles in the geopolitical landscape globally. Mr Odinga in Kenya on the other hand like his counterpart in the Vatican lacked that full sovereign control over an area as he never became President of Kenya which he attempted to do 5 times and although he never became President ( he came close in 2007 and will be discussed) his influence over Kenyan politics is without question unmatched and this was evident as soon as his body was repatriated from India with scores coming to see his body returned at the airport and at the stadium in Nairobi. Both Pope Francis and Raila Odinga continued in their known roles right up to the day they died which although some may criticize as lack of not knowing when to step down due to age and health issues, it is admirable by their sense of duty to serve in their roles despite the frailties they experienced. Let's first look at Pope Francis time as leader of the Catholic faith from his base at the Vatican.

Pope Francis: From the streets of Buenos Aires to the heart of Rome

Pope Francis was born in Argentina in 1936 and was the Archbishop of Buenos Aires when he was selected at the conclave to become the Pope and the first outside of Europe in the Catholic Churches history in March 2013 at the age of 76. He brought his dynamic personal connection and hands on approach to dealing with societal challenges and was seen as being in touch with reality and focused on uplifting the poor and marginalized. His outlook was to the left of the political spectrum and was not afraid to travel to dangerous regions in the world such as visiting Iraq in 2021 and was also an advocate for peace such as pleading with rival parties in South Sudan to end the conflict. He also wanted to reform the Church and make it more inclusive and was not seen as materialistic and chose to stay in a simple dwelling rather than the more grand Pope residence and even travelled in simple fashion such as in ordinary vehicles rather than lavish ones which earned him a lot of supporters globally. He did have his critics such as some in the Vatican not comfortable with his reformist agendas. In his final years he maintained his role with dignity and even in ill health chose to still be involved in church business and even attended an Easter mass on Sunday April 20, 2025 despite being visibly ill a day before he passed away on April 21, 2025 at the age of 88. He was in charge of the Vatican for 12 years and his funeral was attended by many global dignitaries from the US President Donald Trump to Zimbabwe's Vice President Constantino Chiwenga which showed his influence all the way to the vast number of crowds that filled St Peter's Square in the Vatican.

Raila Odinga: The President Kenya never had

Raila Odinga was born in 1945. His father was independent Kenya's first Vice President Jaramogi Oginga Odinga. This likely shaped his political views and his political activism attracted global attention when he was accused of plotting a coup against the country's authoritarian leader Daniel Arap Moi in 1982 that led to his incarceration for most of the decade that made him Kenya's longest serving political prisoner. Upon his release he played a key role in bringing multiparty democracy to the country and ran for President five times in 1997, 2007, 2013, 2017 and 2022.
In 2007 the race was particularly close and turned violent with over 1000 killed leading to a string of negotiations to bring about a peaceful political environment which led to a powersharing agreement between Raila Odinga and the incumbent President Mwai Kibaki that led Odinga to become the Prime Minister until the next elections in 2013 when he lost to the son of the country's founding father Uhuru Kenyatta whose father was Jomo Kenyatta which sparked interest of a continued rivalry between the two as their fathers also at some point were also rivals. In 2017 the country's court came to a dramatic decision and made the elections null and void and said another election should be held that's more acceptable. Odinga decided not to run in that election arguing certain conditions were not met and scores did not turn up which yet again show cased his political might. He later made what was called a "golden handshake" agreement with Uhuru Kenyatta, something he often did with his rivals which critics argue was to save his political career which could be true but also a stroke of political genius to keep his movement going and also his lack of not keeping grudges which was mentioned during his funeral. In 2022 he ran yet again at the age of 77 and in dramatic fashion was backed by the incumbent President Uhuru Kenyatta but lost to Deputy President William Ruto. He later also had a working relationship with Ruto as well which showcased yet again his political strategy to work with his former opponents. In 2024 aged 79 he ran for the highest continental office as Chairperson of the African Union but also lost that race. Despite that set back he continued to lead his movement and remain active and relevant in the political arena up to the end of his life when he passed away in Kerala India on October 15, 2025 at the age of 80 with no signs of him slowing down. His huge popularity in the country was evident by the huge crowds that came to receive his body at the main Airport in Nairobi on a Kenya Airways flight all the way to the stadium. Like Pope Francis his influence had global reach as he was seen as a champion of democracy and many paid tribute to him such as human rights activists, Presidents in the region and beyond.

The parallels between Pope Francis and Kenya's veteran opposition leader and former Prime Minister is astonishing as both wanted to serve until the very end with no talk of retiring. Both advocated for policies to improve the lives of the poor and downtrodden and although they definitely had their critics continued to run with their agendas right up to the end of their lives.

2025: A glimmer of hope?

The year 2025 is almost coming to a close but one cannot help but ponder on the extraordinary events that have shaped the global discourse. The decade of the 2020s began with a pandemic that shook the nation's to their core and as soon as the pandemic started to come to an end no sooner was Europe faced with a war situation in the East as Ukraine and Russia's simmering tensions over the years, led to the outbreak of a full fledged conflict which Russia calls a "special military operation", which however is viewed by Ukraine as Russian aggression. The US President hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska this year, the first time a Russian leader had visited the US in many years as US President Donald Trump used his influence and personal diplomacy to solve the conflict. The conflict is still ongoing but Trump is determined to find solutions to end it as he has just played a key role to cease the conflict between Israel and Palestine which has been seen as a major breakthrough in international relations with Trump been applauded in bringing the war to an end. It is undeniable that ending such a conflict does not happen over night and many hurdles need to be overcome which is by no means an easy feat and only can be achieved with strong and committed leadership and bringing different sides to the negotiating table just as President Trump did with the Israeli leadership, the Arab world, most prominently Egypt and Qatar as well as Turkey and is an ongoing peace process to make the Middle East region safer as the goal. Conflict continues to plague many parts of the world and there is an effort by global leaders to halt these conflicts with some occurring such as between India and Pakistan as well as Rwanda and the DRC. It is by no means an easy task and often times skirmishes will occur but with diplomacy taking centre stage in geo politics away from hard power tactics 2025 is fast becoming a year of the beginning of diplomacy being given a greater chance than ever before and it is encouraged and hoped for that more conflicts can be resolved by end of the year.