Frozen conflicts can be defined as conflicts that have not ceased in the absence of a peace treaty and hence are in a stalemate like condition. A major example that comes to mind is the Korean conflict that ended in 1953 with a truce which means that both North and South Korea are technically still at war and clash now and again but has not deteriorated or rather thawed back to 1950s style combat thanks largely to international diplomacy. Although this phenomenon is more pronounced in former Soviet era nations with various conflicts over territory, particularly where new international borders did not match the ethnic affiliations of local populations. Several territories come to mind that have received little international recognition and they include Transnistria, Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia and Abkhazia and the disputed regions of Luhansk and Donetsk in Ukraine which mostly seemingly imploded following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 where previously and intriguingly all these territories being part of a single entity, the Soviet Union but now seemingly "independent" but without a doubt are within Russia's orbit. Following the resumption of hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh this has highlighted the dangers of frozen conflicts thawing as the risk of an all out war is inevitable unless steps are taken to bring the two opposing sides to the negotiation table as soon as possible.
"Nagorno-Karabakh-The Mother of all Frozen conflicts?"
The recent flare up of violence in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh (known as Artsakh by Armenians) is concerning and risks becoming an international conflict as there appears to be several players involved other than Armenia and Azerbaijan. Before going into depth with who these other players are it is necessary to explain how the latest flare up in this region occurred. Nagorno-Karabakh lies within Azerbaijan territory and is considered part of Azerbaijan by the United Nations. However it is an ethnic-majority Armenian region which was given control to Azerbaijan authorities when both Armenia and Azerbaijan became a part of the Soviet Union in the 1920s. A separatist movement ensued in the 1980s as the Soviet Union began to disintegrate with Nagorno-Karabakh's regional parliament officially voting to become part of Armenia which Azerbaijan suppressed leading to an all-out war leading to Armenian forces gaining control of the area in 1994 with a Russian-brokered ceasefire being declared. Since then skirmishes have continued to occur in the absence of a peace treaty and fighting erupted in 2016 leaving hundreds dead before a ceasefire was declared with the Azeri and Armenian Presidents agreeing to resume political dialogue over this region. In 2018 Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan agreed to set up a new communication line between the two militaries in a sign of reduction of hostilities and as recently as February 2020 the two leaders met at the Munich Security Conference which was unprecedented and although most observers found it counterproductive I found it productive in the sense that at least they were willing to sit in the same room and following the most recent skirmishes and the most serious since 1994 perhaps more face to face dialogue, of course with a neutral mediator, is needed.
2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict now a full-blown war
Skirmishes between Armenian and Azerbaijan troops have continued to occur with the absence of a peace treaty for almost three decades with the last serious emergence of violence ending in 1994. However the latest fighting emerged on September 27,2020 which involved heavy artillery and saw the largest flare up of violence since 1994. Although Nagorno-Karabakh is internationally recognised as being part of Azerbaijan with most of the fighting taking place in this region the mere fact that two countries are fighting over disputed territory means this could technically be viewed as an interstate war and the Rand corporation calls such wars rare events. The fighting in this region has also had a large human cost with many civilian casualties and half the population of this disputed ethnic Armenian region in Azerbaijan being displaced according to Karabakh rights ombudsman Artak Beglaryan. Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has refused to take sides in the conflict, but who's country has been selling weapons on both sides, claims as many as 5000 may have been killed, although this is less than the 1988-1994 conflict which left 30000 dead it gives a vivid picture of the seriousness of this current conflict.
Possible end in sight?
At approximately 1am on Tuesday November 10, 2020 a peace deal signed between Azerbaijan and Armenia with Russia mediating it came into force and this is the first time a peace deal has been made following a number of ceasefire agreements being broken. Furthermore as part of efforts to finally end this long running conflict Russian peacekeepers will be deployed to this disputed region with Russia's defense ministry stating that 1960 personnel would be sent. This signifies Russia's on-going interests in what analysts call Russia's "sphere of influence" as Russia has good relations between these two countries and has military bases in Armenia. This vividly show that Russia has vested interests is in this region and may want to "freeze" this conflict for its own benefit as some observers have noted Russia appearing to be doing in other so called "frozen conflicts", a view I stated in my blog post titled 'Vladimir Putin 3.0'. Turkey has also been a key player in this conflict as it has given its backing to Azerbaijan which it considers a very close ally as "Turkey and Azerbaijan are bound by strong ethnic, cultural and historic ties and refer to their relationship as being one between “two states, one nation.”", according to the Associated Press (AP) and will also be taking part in the peacekeeping process according to the President of Azerbaijan. It is way too early to see if this peace deal holds with possible distrust lingering between the two sides and there are reports of large crowds in Armenia who are against this peace treaty, but is a positive move nevertheless with perhaps a more positive outcome should both sides adhere to the tenets of the peace deal. This also leaves the question of whether this is the first concrete step of finally ending this decades long frozen conflict.
