Friday, July 26, 2024

How July 2024 will shape US politics for decades

July 2024 will go down in US history as a period of significant change. The US has not seen such fast paced change since at least 1968 and we are still half way through the year. At the beginning of July President Joe Biden was the democratic nominee for President for the November 5 elections and was well into his campaign for a second term as US president. Donald Trump much like Biden secured enough delegates to be the Republican nominee for President with the Republican National Convention (RNC) simply going to confirm this much like the Democratic National Convention (DNC) was to do for Biden as well. As the unpresidented debate of June 27 drew near so to were the concerns for Biden's capacity to perform against Trump after a series of gaffes. However the debate performance although not surprising given Bidens fitness prior to the debate was a huge shock not just domestically but internationally as the President's age was clearly on display and not being coherent enough which gave fodder to Trump who was surprisingly restrained and left Biden to his own devices. After the disaster of a debate that was to have a ripple effect, the democratic party's deck of cards finally started to crumble in July as one by one top officials called for Biden to stand down as the democratic nominee. Biden for weeks pushed back and continued his campaign for a second term and also was forced to go on a series of interviews to state his case which at this stage was to no avail as his physical appearance showed a man who was clearly aging.

It was at this time that Washington was to host the NATO summit which began on July 9 which saw many world leaders whose countries are members of NATO were well in attendance for one of the world's most powerful security alliances in which the US is the key pillar, funder and security guarantee of it and Biden would be presiding over this important meeting. Then came the gaffe where he mistakenly said "ladies and gentlemen President Putin" instead of President Zelensky when welcoming the Ukrainian President which at the very least he self corrected.

As all these events were taking place in the US with the political environment being clearly toxic and divisive former President Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt on July 13 with the bullet from the assassin missing his head by a few centimeters and cut his ear to the shock of his supporters, Americans and the world at large which reminisced the dark, turbulent and violent times of the 1960s where several high profile Americans who have shaped the country were assassinated. Trump did not allow this event to halt the RNC and nominated his long awaited running mate 39 year old Ohio Senator JD Vance two days later on July 15 which rejuvenated his campaign which also saw former Republican rivals back him and clearly presented him as the 'ultimate' front runner as Biden continued to slide in the polls as the democratic party was plunged into chaos between the President's supporters and those publicly calling for him to step aside with more and more even more prominent voices in the party stating that he should reconsider his position including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Former President Barack Obama.

On Sunday July 21 in the afternoon Biden finally made an announcement in writing that was widely shared on all major news networks and online that he would stand down as the democratic nominee for President and will complete his first term. This statement by Biden was inevitable in light of his health and fitness and vivid frailty which is expected a man of his age. Not long after he endorsed his Vice President Kamala Harris as his preferred successor. Following that announcement many democrats commended Biden as a patriot and including Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer, while Vice President Harris called Biden's legacy 'unmatched'. Biden finally made a public announcement from the White House to address the nation of his intention to not run for reelection on July 24 as a matter of 'defending democracy', 'unite the nation' and to 'pass the torch'. Following Biden's announcement the democratic party has somewhat stabilized and many senior democratic leaders have followed suit and coalesced around Harris but some have argued for an open contest and it is interesting that Obama did not endorse her until July 26 and many democrats see her as the 'best person' to beat Trump in the November election. The Trump camp appears unmoved by Harris and this is because Harris has had low poll numbers in the past, even lower than Biden and has not been seen as an effective Vice President by her critics, mainly Republicans, but also including some members of her own party which gives her an extra effort to win them over and is well aware of this as she mentioned she wants to earn her support. Some latest polls have put her closer to Trump.
July is still far from over and so much could transpire before the end of the month as the last few weeks have clearly shown us. 

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